Following a state election, it is initially unclear who will form the next government and, consequently, what the state’s political priorities will be. This can have significant implications for universities and the academic sector: for example, in terms of funding, the Higher Education Act and the political framework. Political scientist Prof. Dr Michael Böcher explains how a government is formed following an election, what is decided during coalition negotiations, and what a minority government means for universities.
Professor Böcher, what happens after a state election?
Once the election result is final, there are essentially three possibilities.
If a party holds more than 50 per cent of the seats, it can govern alone and appoint the Minister-President.
If no party has a majority of its own, coalition partners usually have to be found. To this end, the parties first hold exploratory talks. If these are successful, coalition negotiations follow. In Saxony-Anhalt, this was the case after the 2021 state election between the CDU, SPD and FDP.
A third option is a minority government. This is an option if no coalition with a majority of its own can be formed. In that case, the government must seek support from MPs from other parties for its policies.
Why doesn’t the strongest party automatically form the government?
The strongest party does not automatically form the government. The decisive factor is which parties can together secure a majority in parliament.
If several other parties join together to form a coalition, they may have more MPs than the largest party. At federal level, too, there have been examples of social-liberal coalitions, even though the CDU had emerged as the largest party.
However, coalitions always involve compromises. Each partner must make concessions on certain issues.
What is decided during coalition negotiations regarding universities?
During coalition negotiations, the parties set out key policy priorities for the next five years. These may include, for example, the funding of research or amendments to the Higher Education Act.
The current coalition agreement in Saxony-Anhalt, for example, emphasises the importance of research for regional structural change and job creation. It also highlights the need for adequate core funding for the state’s two universities.
Negotiations also take place to determine which party will take charge of which ministry and who will therefore be politically responsible for science and higher education.
What does a coalition agreement contain?
The coalition agreement forms the political basis for cooperation between the governing parties. It sets out which joint projects are planned and which laws are to be introduced.
However, these agreements are not legally binding or enforceable. Furthermore, the framework conditions may change during a parliamentary term. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, has shown how quickly new challenges can arise. Natural disasters or a lack of budgetary resources can also lead to projects being adjusted or postponed.
Can any party form a coalition with any other?
In principle, parties can form a coalition with any other party represented in the state parliament. The decisive factor is whether they can reach politically viable compromises.
There are also so-called ‘incompatibility resolutions’. The CDU, for example, has passed a resolution against cooperating with Die Linke. The much-discussed ‘firewall’ against the AfD also plays a role in potential coalitions.
You’ve already touched on this: what is a minority government?
A minority government does not have its own majority in the state parliament. It must therefore repeatedly seek support from other parties for its proposals.
Saxony-Anhalt already has experience of this. The so-called ‘Magdeburg model’ was in place from 1994 to 2002. Initially, the SPD and Alliance 90/The Greens governed together, with the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) supporting the government. Later, the SPD continued to lead a minority government, which was also tolerated by the PDS.
Minority governments have also existed and continue to exist in other eastern German states, for example in Thuringia from 2020 to 2024 and currently in Saxony.
What would this mean for universities?
In principle, a minority government has the same rights and obligations as a government with its own majority. However, political implementation is more difficult.
It must repeatedly seek support from other parties for legislative initiatives and other projects. As a result, agreements are often reached on specific projects.
This can complicate the work of government. Legislative proposals may be delayed or may not be implemented at all.
At the same time, a minority government can strengthen parliamentary debate. Different parties must engage more closely with one another, and depending on the issue, different majorities may emerge.
For higher education policy, this means that its development would depend more heavily on the consensus reached by the parties in the state parliament on a case-by-case basis.
What happens if no government is formed?
The procedure for electing the Minister-President is laid down in the respective state constitution.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the 14-day deadline following the constituent session of the state parliament – which was in force until 2020 – has been abolished. This was intended to give the parties more time to form a coalition.
If no clear majority is in sight after the forthcoming election, the current state government will remain in office on an interim basis. As the election of the Minister-President is no longer bound by a fixed deadline, it is impossible to predict how long this transitional phase would last.
Furthermore, new elections can only be called once the election of the Minister-President has failed after three rounds of voting.
Can a state election also influence federal politics?
Yes. The state governments are represented in the Bundesrat. Among other things, the Bundesrat discusses and votes on federal legislative proposals that have an impact on the states.
The states can form joint majorities to block draft legislation or initiate a mediation procedure. In political science, such actors are referred to as ‘veto players’. This term refers to actors who can block or alter political initiatives.
The states also cooperate on higher education policy, for example through the Conference of Ministers of Science within the Conference of Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs. Issues discussed here include, for instance, the nationwide comparability of higher education qualifications.
For a long time, the principle of unanimity applied within the Conference of Ministers for Science. This meant that a single federal state could block decisions. This principle has since been abolished, at least in some areas. Following a clarification procedure, the approval of 13 state ministers is now sufficient.
What should voters look out for?
Anyone interested in education and science should look at the parties’ election manifestos and pay attention to the positions they take on these issues. The state government’s track record to date may also play a role in one’s own voting decision.
However, for many people, science and higher education policy is of less importance than, for example, schools and the shortage of teachers. It is therefore unlikely that higher education policy will be the decisive campaign issue for broad sections of the electorate.
The situation is different for students, academics and university staff. For them, the state government’s political decisions can have a direct impact on their studies, research and work at universities.
